Bill · S. 4469· Senate(119-S-4469)
Prediction Market Act of 2026
- Introduced
- 4/30/2026
- Last activity
- 4/30/2026 — Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.
- Sponsored by
- David McCormick
- Cosponsors
- - 1 - 1
- Introduced
- In Committee
What this bill would do
The Prediction Market Act of 2026 seeks to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to include specific rules and definitions for "event contracts." These contracts are based on the occurrence of certain events or contingencies. The bill establishes new oversight mechanisms, including an Advisory Council on Consumer Protection and an Office of the Retail Advocate. It also prohibits Members of Congress and certain executive branch officials from trading these contracts. Additionally, the act mandates various studies and establishes an Innovation Advisory Committee to assist the Commission.
Yes· 3 of 5
Does this give people more protection from unfair business practices?+7
The bill establishes an Advisory Council on Consumer Protection and an Office of the Retail Advocate to protect retail investors.
Does this make what the government does easier for the public to see?+5
The bill requires the Commission to publish reports and findings on a publicly available website.
Would households on low incomes be better off under this?+3
The bill includes provisions for financial literacy and consumer protection for retail participants.
The opposite
Does this change how police departments operate?-2
The bill prohibits event contracts based on activity involving terrorism, assassination, war, or violence.
Who it would affect, and how
Potential Positive Impacts for People
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Consumer Protection via Oversight: The bill creates an Advisory Council on Consumer Protection to encourage discussions on consumer protection and develop recommendations to ensure markets promote customer protection and market integrity (Section 2, subsection (d)(6)(C)).
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Advocacy for Individual Investors: The establishment of the Office of the Retail Advocate provides a dedicated entity to assist retail participants in resolving significant problems relating to transactions and to analyze the potential impact of proposed regulations (Section 2, subsection (d)(7)(D)).
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Prevention of Unlawful Markets: The Commission is granted authority to determine that event contracts are contrary to the public interest if they involve activity such as terrorism, assassination, war, or violence, and may prohibit these from being traded (Section 2, subsection (d)(2)(A)).
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Increased Transparency and Readability: The bill requires the Commission to prescribe disclosure requirements for event contracts that are designed to promote readability for retail customers (Section 2, subsection (d)(2)(D)(ii)).
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Standardized Marketing Rules: To protect the public, the bill restricts promotional materials for event contracts, preventing deceptive practices, material misstatements, or mentions of profit without discussing the risk of loss (Section s 2, subsection (d)(3)(A)).
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Retail Investor Education: The Commission is directed to conduct financial literacy and customer education activities specifically for retail investor activity related to event contracts (Section 3(d)).
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Prevention of Insider Trading: The bill implements a prohibition on Members of Congress and certain executive branch officials from entering into event contracts (Section 3(a)).
Potential Negative Impacts for People
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Risk of Financial Loss: The bill acknowledges that event contracts involve a risk of loss, which must be disclosed to customers (Section 2, subsection (d)(5)(B)).
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Potential for Penalties: The Commission is authorized to prescribe financial penalties for designated contract markets or swap execution facilities that fail to comply with certain standardized requirements for written certifications (Section 2, subsection (d)(2)(D)(iii)).
Groups and Interests Ranking
Every group the model scored this bill for, from -10 to +10. Hover a score for the reason it gave.
- Demographic And Interest Groups
- Good For Low Income Households+3Good For Middle Class Households+3Good For Business Owners+2
- Economy And Finance
- Improves Consumer Protection+7
- Governance And Ideology
- Improves Government Transparency+5
- Social Issues And Justice
- Improves Policing Reform-2
- 8/3/2026
- 1 Cosponsor added.
- 4/30/2026
- Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.
- 1 Cosponsor added.
- Introduced in Senate
One bill Congress.gov lists as related to this one — companions in the other chamber, earlier versions, and bills this one absorbed or was folded into.
Kirsten GillibrandDemocrat · New York
Bernie MorenoRepublican · Ohio